The maths that saw the US shutdown coming - physics-math - 09 October 2013 - New Scientist
you'd think at least they could google him and get his title correct.
Peter Turchin professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, and adjunct in the departments of Anthropology and Mathematics at the University of Connecticut; also Vice-President and a Founding Member of the Evolution Institute.
His book: Historical Dynamics
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow
and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither.
Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical
processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic
approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses.
Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at
certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a
similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical
processes in history.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Isaac Asimov and the Foundation Series
Paul Krugman, at the 67th World Science Fiction Convention in Montréal, Québec, Canada, Paul Krugman, the Nobel Laureate in Economics, mentioned Hari Seldon. According to Krugman, his interest in economics began with Asimov's Foundation novels, in which the social scientists of the future use "Psychohistory" to attempt to save civilization. Since "Psychohistory" in Asimov's sense of the word does not exist, Krugman turned to economics, which he considered the next best thing. In his column he considers Ibn Khaldun having done "a pretty good job" of setting himself up as the Hari Seldon of medieval Islam.
Hari Seldon is the intellectual hero of Isaac Asimov's Foundation Series. In his capacity as mathematics professor at Streeling University on Trantor, he developed psychohistory, allowing him to predict the future in probabilistic terms. His ability to predict disasters is the reason behind his nickname "Raven" Seldon.
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