RAND -4 major programs drive AF Rapid Program Cost Growth

Rate of Cost Growth for F-35A exceeds all previous Fighters

Air Force Major Defense Acquisition Program Cost Growth Is Driven by Three Space Programs and the F-35A: Fiscal Year 2013 President's Budget Selected Acquisition Reports | RAND

SBIRS Architecture

Advanced Extremely High Frequency

Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)

F-35A

Key Findings

Continuing Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) Have Higher Average Cost Growth than Those That Are Complete

• Average
  cost growth in all acquisition metrics except development is
  substantially higher in continuing Air Force MDAPs than those that are
  now complete.
• Three continuing space programs with extreme cost growth drive the
  higher cost growth in the group of continuing MDAPs.
• Space-Based Infrared System, High Component; 
• Advanced Extremely High Frequency; and 
• Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) 
• However, in dollar
  terms, cost growth in the Air Force portion of the F-35 program (F-35A)
  is by far the largest of all programs.
• Thus far, there is minimal cost growth in MDAPs begun in the past ten years that have substantial Air Force funding.
• Four MDAPs in aggregate are expected to consume a large fraction of
  annual Air Force MDAP acquisition funding in the coming 20 years: 



KC-46A

• F-35A, 
• EELV, 
• KC-46A, and 
• the Long-Range Strike Bomber.

Recommendations

• Four programs in aggregate are expected to consume a large
  fraction of annual Air Force weapon system investment funding in the
  coming 20 years: F-35A, EELV, KC-46A, and the Long Long-Range Strike
  Bomber. The first two are well along in the acquisition process but have
  decades of production to come. Opportunity remains to stem the cost
  growth in these programs. The second two are earlier in the acquisition
  process and thus provide even greater opportunities to ensure
  affordability and minimal future cost growth. Controlling the cost of
  these four high-value programs is essential to ensuring both their
  affordability and that of the entire Air Force weapon system acquisition
  portfolio for decades to come.