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Abstract
To better understand trends in Chinese unmanned systems research, development, acquisition, and
employment, and their potential implications, RAND undertook exploratory analysis to lay an initial foundation for future research on China's development and use of unmanned systems, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs), and unmanned surface
vessels (USVs). The exploratory analysis focused on identifying sources related to Chinese development of maritime unmanned systems, including UUVs, USVs, and UAVs, with an emphasis on systems intended for the maritime environment because of their relevance to maritime territorial
disputes in the East and South China Seas; understanding the roles that China sees for unmanned systems; analyzing trends in Chinese development of UUVs, USVs, and maritime UAVs, including the key technologies Chinese researchers are pursuing; exploring how China could employ
unmanned systems in its maritime territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas; and identifying areas for further research and potential future developments. The remainder of this report highlights the key findings of this exploratory research project and presents some preliminary analysis of their potential implications.
employment, and their potential implications, RAND undertook exploratory analysis to lay an initial foundation for future research on China's development and use of unmanned systems, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned undersea vehicles (UUVs), and unmanned surface
vessels (USVs). The exploratory analysis focused on identifying sources related to Chinese development of maritime unmanned systems, including UUVs, USVs, and UAVs, with an emphasis on systems intended for the maritime environment because of their relevance to maritime territorial
disputes in the East and South China Seas; understanding the roles that China sees for unmanned systems; analyzing trends in Chinese development of UUVs, USVs, and maritime UAVs, including the key technologies Chinese researchers are pursuing; exploring how China could employ
unmanned systems in its maritime territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas; and identifying areas for further research and potential future developments. The remainder of this report highlights the key findings of this exploratory research project and presents some preliminary analysis of their potential implications.
Key Findings
Unmanned vehicles with intelligence capabilities could improve Chinese long-distance targeting.
- Unmanned aerial vehicles paired with an enhanced satellite network would improve
China's capability for long-range strike system targeting.
Unmanned vehicles with surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities could play a growing role in monitoring territorial disputes at sea.
- Establishment or improvement of unmanned-vehicle support infrastructure in disputed areas could promote escalation of conflict. Chinese thinking on this issue seems unclear at the moment.
As China develops and improves its unmanned-vehicle system production, it is poised to become a global exporter of such systems.
- Low pricing and lack of export restrictions could make China the top global source of unmanned vehicle systems for many countries in the market for UAV capability.
- China already has a deal to produce UAVs for Saudi Arabia.
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