Wednesday, December 24, 2014

RAND -4 major programs drive AF Rapid Program Cost Growth

Rate of Cost Growth for F-35A exceeds all previous Fighters
Air Force Major Defense Acquisition Program Cost Growth Is Driven by Three Space Programs and the F-35A: Fiscal Year 2013 President's Budget Selected Acquisition Reports | RAND

SBIRS Architecture
Advanced Extremely High Frequency
Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV)

F-35A

Key Findings

Continuing Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) Have Higher Average Cost Growth than Those That Are Complete

  • Average
    cost growth in all acquisition metrics except development is
    substantially higher in continuing Air Force MDAPs than those that are
    now complete.
  • Three continuing space programs with extreme cost growth drive the
    higher cost growth in the group of continuing MDAPs.
  • However, in dollar
    terms, cost growth in the Air Force portion of the F-35 program (F-35A)
    is by far the largest of all programs
    .
  • Thus far, there is minimal cost growth in MDAPs begun in the past ten years that have substantial Air Force funding.
  • Four MDAPs in aggregate are expected to consume a large fraction of
    annual Air Force MDAP acquisition funding in the coming 20 years: 
  • KC-46A

Recommendations

  • Four programs in aggregate are expected to consume a large
    fraction of annual Air Force weapon system investment funding in the
    coming 20 years: F-35A, EELV, KC-46A, and the Long Long-Range Strike
    Bomber. The first two are well along in the acquisition process but have
    decades of production to come. Opportunity remains to stem the cost
    growth in these programs. The second two are earlier in the acquisition
    process and thus provide even greater opportunities to ensure
    affordability and minimal future cost growth. Controlling the cost of
    these four high-value programs is essential to ensuring both their
    affordability and that of the entire Air Force weapon system acquisition
    portfolio for decades to come.

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